Updating cancer survival index trends for England and Wales to 2016
Research type
Research Study
Full title
Updating trends in the cancer survival index for England and Wales to 2016
IRAS ID
259898
Contact name
Michel P Coleman
Contact email
Sponsor organisation
London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Clinicaltrials.gov Identifier
N/A, N/A
Duration of Study in the UK
0 years, 9 months, 1 days
Research summary
Cancer Research UK (CRUK) has set a target of improving 10-year survival in England and Wales for all cancers combined to 75% by 2030. Achieving this target is the core feature of its research strategy, and it is a critical feature of the agency's public profile. This project is designed to assess progress in survival up to 10 years after diagnosis, for all cancers combined, since the index was last published for patients who had been diagnosed up to 2010, as part of CRUK's research strategy launch in 2014.
Lay summary of study results:
We produced an index of survival for all cancers combined and both sexes combined. This index offers a single summary measure of cancer survival that can be monitored over time to show progress in the overall effectiveness of the healthcare system for cancer. The survival index can be estimated at any specified duration after a cancer diagnosis.
We set out to produce trends in the cancer survival index for England and Wales for patients diagnosed during the 48 years 1971-2018. Trends in the index were last published in 2015 for patients diagnosed during the 40 years up to 2011.
A major goal for Cancer Research UK’s research strategy is that 10-year net survival for all cancers combined should reach 75% by 2034. This would imply that, on average, for all cancers combined, at least three in four people diagnosed with cancer in 2034 in England Wales could be expected to have the same chances of surviving for 10 years or more as members of the general population.
The analyses reported here suggest that progress towards this goal has slowed down over the last 10-15 years. The index of 10-year survival for all cancers combined was 23.7% for patients diagnosed during 1971-1972. The 10-year index increased substantially over the next 40 years, to 47.9% for patients diagnosed during 2010-2011.Austerity, leading to increasing waiting times for diagnosis and treatment, and the abandonment of key NHS targets, are likely to be primary reasons for the slower progress in cancer survival in the UK. For patients diagnosed in 2018, the predicted value of the 10-year survival index is 49.8%, a relatively small increase (1.9%) in the eight years since 2010-2011. If that predicted value were to be confirmed when 10-year follow-up of is available for all patients who were diagnosed in 2018, then a major acceleration in the underlying trends in cancer survival would be required to reach the target of 75% for patients diagnosed in 2034: the 10-year survival index would need to increase further by an average of 1.6% every year.
REC name
London - Queen Square Research Ethics Committee
REC reference
19/LO/0426
Date of REC Opinion
25 Jun 2019
REC opinion
Further Information Favourable Opinion