The surprise question and heart failure
Research type
Research Study
Full title
A prospective cohort study to evaluate whether the ‘surprise question’ can predict 12-month mortality for patients admitted due to heart failure in a single tertiary center.
IRAS ID
182037
Contact name
Klaus Witte
Contact email
Sponsor organisation
University of Leeds
Duration of Study in the UK
0 years, 4 months, 0 days
Research summary
This study aims to assess whether asking healthcare professionals a simple question can predict survival in patients with heart failure. The ‘surprise question’ – "would you be surprised if this patient were to die in the next 12 months?" has been recommended as a feasible way of identifying and planning the care of patients in the last year of life. It has been shown to reliably predict mortality in patients with advanced cancer and in patients undergoing haemo/peritoneal dialysis. It has been argued that the surprise question is inappropriate in heart failure as prognosis is difficult to predict due to an uncertain disease trajectory characterized by repeated hospitalizations and erratic decline. Few patients with advanced heart failure are referred to palliative care services, despite evidence suggesting that many more would welcome this. Whether the ‘surprise question’ can predict mortality in this population has not yet been studied. This study will evaluate whether answers to this question from healthcare professionals can predict survival at 12 months, and so validate the 'surprise question' as a prognostic tool.
REC name
North East - Tyne & Wear South Research Ethics Committee
REC reference
16/NE/0276
Date of REC Opinion
10 Aug 2016
REC opinion
Favourable Opinion