Exploring risk calculators for future care needs
Research type
Research Study
Full title
Exploring the potential uses of risk prediction models for prevention in social care
IRAS ID
363868
Contact name
Claire Surr
Contact email
Sponsor organisation
Leeds Beckett University
Duration of Study in the UK
1 years, 9 months, 30 days
Research summary
As life expectancy ages continue to rise, many people will need additional help at home or may eventually move into a care home. Planning ahead and supporting people to stay independent for as long as possible are critical goals for high quality health and social care. As such, services require reliable ways of identifying who might need more support in the near future.
The research team has developed a risk calculator that uses information already held in medical records to estimate whether an older person may need care in their own home or a care home within the next year. This tool could help in several ways. It might allow services to provide support earlier on in the care pathway, help older adults and their families plan ahead, and guide services in planning and commissioning local care.
Risk calculators are starting to be used more often in health care, however, they are not commonly implemented in social care. Before they are introduced, it is necessary to understand how they might be used fairly and sensitively and what thoughts there are surrounding their use.
This study will explore the views of three groups including older adults, their family members or carers, and staff who may use these tools. Up to 70 people will be invited to take part in interviews where participants will be asked to comment on example risk scores and how these could best be explained and used in practice.
The findings will highlight potential benefits, concerns and barriers to using risk calculators in social care. These results will be used to to make clear recommendations for safe and appropriate use, and to produce resources for staff and the public. This project will also provide evidence to inform a larger study that would test how the tool works in practice.
REC name
London - Camberwell St Giles Research Ethics Committee
REC reference
25/LO/0891
Date of REC Opinion
13 Jan 2026
REC opinion
Further Information Favourable Opinion